IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend

Author

Listed:
  • Durdyev, Ruslan

    (International Laboratory of Quantitative Finance NRU HSE)

  • Peresetsky, Anatoly

    (Higher School of Economics and CEMI RAS, Moscow)

Abstract

Korhonen and Peresetsky (2013) suggested a new Kalman-filter type model of financial markets to extract a global stochastic trend from discrete non-synchronous data on daily stock market index returns from different markets. We extend this model to allow the correlation between increments of this global trend on neighbor intervals. Existence of that non-zero correlation is demonstrated. However it does not mean that it helps forecast daily returns of the stock indices itself, since the global stochastic trend is unobservable. Forecasting performance of the model with three stock markets is explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Durdyev, Ruslan & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2014. "Autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 35(3), pages 39-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2014_3_39-58.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
    3. Cartea, Álvaro & Karyampas, Dimitrios, 2011. "Volatility and covariation of financial assets: A high-frequency analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3319-3334.
    4. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    8. Chang, Yoosoon & Isaac Miller, J. & Park, Joon Y., 2009. "Extracting a common stochastic trend: Theory with some applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 231-247, June.
    9. Byung Yoon Bae & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "Global and Regional Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: The Case of Some Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 717-738, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    2. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    3. Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Ortega, Juan-Pablo & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility forecasting using global stochastic financial trends extracted from non-synchronous data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 67-82.
    4. Pogorelova, Polina & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2020. "Extracting the global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data on the volatility of financial indices," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 53-71.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    2. Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Ortega, Juan-Pablo & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility forecasting using global stochastic financial trends extracted from non-synchronous data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 67-82.
    3. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
    7. Manevich, Vyacheslav & Peresetsky, Anatoly & Pogorelova, Polina, 2022. "Stock market and cryptocurrency market volatility," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 65, pages 65-76.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Factor analysis of a model of stock market returns using simulation-based estimation techniques," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    10. Mulyadi, Martin Surya, 2009. "Volatility spillover in Indonesia, USA, and Japan capital market," MPRA Paper 16914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Brooks, Chris & Henry, Olan T., 2000. "Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 497-513, December.
    12. G. Mujtaba Mian & Christopher M. Adam, 2000. "Does More Market-Wide Information Originate While an Exchange is Open: Some Anomalous Evidence from the ASX," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 25(3), pages 339-352, December.
    13. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    14. Wahyoe Soedarmono, 2018. "Stock market integration in the Asia-Pacific region: Evidence from cointegration of liquidity risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 60-70.
    15. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
    16. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    17. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2017. "Contagion of the eurozone debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 115-128.
    18. He, Ling T., 2001. "Time variation paths of international transmission of stock volatility -- US vs. Hong Kong and South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 79-93.
    19. Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2010. "Comovements Of Different Asset Classes During Market Stress," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 385-400, August.
    20. Sheedy, Elizabeth, 1998. "Correlation in currency markets a risk-adjusted perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 59-82, January.
    21. Graham, Michael & Kiviaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2012. "Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-47.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial market integration; stock market returns; global stochastic trend; state space model; Kalman filter; non-synchronous data; market returns forecast.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.