IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v9y2022i2p21-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population Dynamics, Macroeconomic Risks, and the Future of Pensions in Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Arto Kovanen

Abstract

The hybrid pay-as-you-go system currently in use in Finland could become increasingly untenable in the longer run, should macroeconomic developments turn out weaker than expected. Unfavorable population trends would amplify the effects of adverse macroeconomic shocks on the Finnish pension system and its financial health. Although Finnish government has demonstrated willingness to respond to challenges facing the pension system and has been successful in building consensus for necessary pension reforms, a more strategic approach would serve policymakers and retirees (current and future) better in the longer run. This study focuses on risks to productivity and investment returns and how they would impact the longer-term health of the Finnish pension system, given unfavorable population dynamics. In order to protect the longer-term finances of the pension system, government should transition away from the pay-as-you-go model to an arrangement where pensions are fully funded from investment returns instead of being dependent on the contributions of current working-age population. We suggest alternative options to achieve that but at the same time emphasize that the authorities need to be mindful of burden-sharing between workers and pensioners in their considerations, as pension cuts would hurt retirees while contribution rates are already quite high.

Suggested Citation

  • Arto Kovanen, 2022. "Population Dynamics, Macroeconomic Risks, and the Future of Pensions in Finland," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 21-41, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:9:y:2022:i:2:p:21-41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/download/5533/5726
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/5533
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2018. "Longevity, Working Lives, And Public Finances," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 467-482, July.
    2. Tarmo Valkonen, 2020. "The Finnish Pension System and Its Future Challenges," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(2), pages 92-96, March.
    3. Christophe André & Thomas Chalaux, 2016. "Boosting Productivity in Finland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1319, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alho, Juha & Lassila, Jukka, 2022. "Assessing Components of Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts with an Application to Fiscal Sustainability," ETLA Working Papers 92, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Heikki Tikanmaki & Hannu Sihvonen & Janne Salonen, 2015. "Distributional Effects of the Forthcoming Finnish Pension Reform - a Dynamic Microsimulation Approach," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(3), pages 75-98.
    5. Juha Alho & Jukka Lassila, 2023. "Assessing components of uncertainty in demographic forecasts with an application to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1560-1568, November.
    6. Aris Ananta & Ahmad Irsan A. Moeis & Hendro Try Widianto & Heri Yulianto & Evi Nurvidya Arifin, 2021. "Pension and Active Ageing: Lessons Learned from Civil Servants in Indonesia," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Lassila, Jukka, 2018. "Aggregate Risks, Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Fiscal Sustainability in the Finnish Earnings-Related Pension System," ETLA Working Papers 57, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    8. Tarmo Valkonen, 2020. "The Finnish Pension System and Its Future Challenges," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(2), pages 92-96, March.
    9. Mikkel Barslund, 2020. "Pension Systems in the EU — Some Policy Issues," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(2), pages 69-72, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:9:y:2022:i:2:p:21-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.