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Simulation Model for Foreign Trade During the Crisis in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Mirela Diaconescu
  • Liviu-Stelian Begu
  • Mihai Diaconescu

Abstract

The paper proposes to analyze the evolution of foreign trade during the crisis in Romania. The evolution of foreign trade is analyzed using a simulation model. The period of analysis is 2006-2014. The data source is Eurostat and National Bank of Romania. Also, based on these data, we propose an econometric model which can be developed using different scenarios and forecasting of evolution of foreign trade. In period of economic recession, protectionist sentiments against imports competing with domestic products tend to rise. The same phenomenon was manifested in Romania. Thus, our study started from this consideration. Using econometric model we made scenarios predictions and the results are similar to the real values.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela Diaconescu & Liviu-Stelian Begu & Mihai Diaconescu, 2014. "Simulation Model for Foreign Trade During the Crisis in Romania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(54), pages 53-60, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:17:y:2014:i:54:p:53-60
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments; financial crises; international trade; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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