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Inflacion, crecimiento y politica macroeconomica en Brasil y Mexico: Una investigacion empirica

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  • Victor M. Cuevas Ahumada

    ()
    (Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco)

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    Abstract

    En este trabajo se investigan los principales determinantes de la inflacion y la volatilidad en la produccion de Brasil y Mexico. Para ello se especifica y estima un modelo VAR para cada pais, el cual es consistente con una economia mediana, abierta, con un regimen cambiario flexible y libre movilidad de capital. La evidencia demuestra que el efecto traspaso del tipo de cambio a los precios es mas vigoroso en Mexico que en Brasil. Asimismo, Brasil aprovecha mejor las ganancias que, en terminos de competitividad internacional, supone una depreciacion real de la moneda. Una expansion del deficit fiscal, por otra parte, estimula la actividad economica solamente en Brasil. La explicacion de estos hallazgos radica en que la economia mexicana es no solo mas abierta que la brasilena sino, tambien, mas dependiente de insumos intermedios y bienes de capital importados. Finalmente, las estimaciones realizadas para ambas naciones sugieren que: 1) Los choques monetarios elevan los precios y estimulan de manera tenue y pasajera la produccion; 2) Los choques salariales no constituyen una causal importante de inflacion; y 3) Una depreciacion real de la moneda no mejora el saldo de la balanza comercial, lo cual sugiere que la condicion Marshall-Lerner no se satisface. Como podra verse, todo lo anterior reviste importantes implicaciones de politica economica.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia. in its journal EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Enero-Junio)
    Pages: 35-78

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    Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:4:y:2008:i:2:p:35-78

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    Keywords: inflacion; crecimiento; politica economica; modelos VAR;

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