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L'État pare-chocs. Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie française

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  • Eric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau
  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Gaël Dupont

Abstract

[eng] The State, as a shock absorber Forecast for the French economy in 2000 and 2001 Division Economie Francaise In 2000, the raise in oil price represented a levy on the GDP of around 0,5 %. Indirect taxes were lowered to alleviate the inflationary consequences. So the virtuous dynamics experienced in Europe since 1997 wouldn't be stopped. The GDP would grow by 3,4 % in 2000 and 3,7 % in 2001. Growth and reduction of working time would stimulate employment. The household purchasing power would sustain consumption. More over, the raise in imported goods priees hasn't deteriorate corporate margins thanks to controlled wage costs. Firms should go on investing, thus stabilising the capacity utilisation rate. By the end of 2001, French economy should grow at its potential pace. Growth would allow for tax cuts : for the first time since 1992, tax would diminish as a percentage of GDP. JEL code : F 01 [fre] La prévision de croissance de l'OFCE est de 3,4 % pour l'année 2000 et de 3,7 % pour l'année 2001. La dynamique vertueuse de croissance enclenchée en France et en Europe depuis 1997 se poursuit. La hausse des produits pétroliers opère une ponction d'environ 0,5 point de PIB en 2000. En diminuant la fiscalité indirecte, l'État amortit l'impact inflationniste de ce choc, d'autant que l'inflation anticipée reste faible. L'alourdissement de la facture pétrolière n'enraye pas les moteurs de la croissance que sont la consommation et l'investissement. L'emploi reste dynamique du fait de l'activité et de la diffusion des 35 heures. Il garantit la progression du pouvoir d'achat des ménages et donc de la consommation. Par ailleurs, la modération salariale a permis que la hausse du prix des produits importés n'entame pas les marges des entreprises au niveau global. Celles-ci poursuivraient leurs investissements, ce qui stabiliserait les tensions sur l'appareil productif. Les administrations publiques utilisent les marges dégagées par la croissance pour réduire les impôts : le taux des prélèvements obligatoires baisserait pour la première fois depuis 1992.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 75 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 105-150

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_75_1_1629

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1629
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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