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Toutes voiles dehors ! Perspectives 1999-2000 pour l'économie française

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  • Division économie fançaise
  • Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE
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    Abstract

    [eng] Forecast for 1999-2000 for the French economy Division Economie Francaise France has known an industrial slow-down at the turn of the year 1998, but it was only an indirect effect of the Asian and Russian crisis. The internai demand hardly weakened, whereas exports fell. Thus, the impact of the crisis on the German and Italian economic situation is the main source of slow-down. At mid-1999, the business climate had rebounded in every European country. France was one of the first big countries to experience it. The upturn in the oil prices favoured changes in business behaviour, especially in the field of investment and stocks. Employment has remained very dynamic during the past months so the rebound was quicker. Moreover, the construction sector benefited from lower interest rates and real estate priees, and fiscal reforms. The GDP should grow by 3,5 % in 2000 after 2,6 % in 1999. JEL code : FOI [fre] La prévision de croissance de l'OFCE est de 2,6 % pour l'année 1999 et de 3,5 % pour l'année 2000. L'industrie française a subi en fin d'année 1998 et en début d'année 1999 un net ralentissement causé par la crise asiatique et les conséquences indirectes de celle-ci sur l'Allemagne et l'Italie. Cependant, la consommation des ménages reste dynamique, relativement aux autres composantes de la demande, portée par une croissance forte du revenu et soutenue par la décrue du chômage et un emploi en forte progression. La deuxième partie de l'année 1999 est marquée par le rebond de l'industrie qui réagit à une demande étrangère moins déprimée et qui rattrape son retard de stockage et d'investissement d'autant que la reprise des prix des matières premières ne justifie plus d'attentisme. Ainsi, sur la lancée de la reprise à la fin 1999, la croissance pour l'année 2000 est supérieure à la croissance potentielle, sans que des tensions particulières soient à craindre. La croissance se réalise sans mouvement de l'inflation, hors ceux apportés par la remontée du prix du pétrole. Les politiques budgétaires et monétaires ont un impact pratiquement neutre et n'obèrent pas ce schéma de reprise. Par ailleurs, la politique de l'emploi du gouvernement apporte une amélioration supplémentaire sur le marché du travail. Le chômage se réduit et atteint à la fin de l'année 2000 10,4 % de la population active.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1999.1554
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 71 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 85-120

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1999_num_71_1_1554

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1999.1554
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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