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France : la croissance quand même !

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  • Carine Bouthevillain
  • Hervé Péléraux
  • Eric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau
  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE

Abstract

[eng] France growth anyway Forecast for 1998-1999 Division Economie Française Two opposite forces are working on the French economy. On one side, internal demand is highly dynamic. Strong employment boosts households consumption and private investment follows. Up to date data clearly confirms this and allows to anticipate a future strong internal demand. On the other side, the foreign growth expériences a major slowdown. Asian crisis, international financial system problems, fall of the US dollar and Japanese yen, deflation threats explain the global turmoil. The impact on the French economy is important, about 1.4 point of GDP growth in 1998. Despite this, the balance of the two forces is positive for France (3.0 % in 1998 and 2.7 % in 1999) with a rate of growth in the two next years high enough to induce a diminution of unemployment. Rate of unemployed over active population should be around 11 % by late '99. [fre] La conjoncture française est sous le coup de deux forces contradictoires. D'une part, la demande intérieure est particulièrement dynamique. L'embellie de l'emploi permet à la consommation de se maintenir à un rythme de croissance soutenu. L'investissement accompagne ce mouvement et contribue à la bonne tenue de la demande intérieure. Ces éléments sont aujourd'hui inscrits dans les comptes nationaux et dans les diverses enquêtes de conjoncture. D'autre part, l'environnement international est fortement dégradé. La crise asiatique, les troubles du système financier mondial, la baisse du dollar et du yen, les risques de déflation sont à l'origine de cette dégradation. L'impact sur la croissance française est important, de l'ordre de 1,4 point de croissance. La conjonction de ces deux forces résulte en une croissance du PIB total de 3,0% en 1998 et de 2,7% en 1999. La vigueur de la demande interne permet ainsi la France de connaître, dans une situation interna tionale déprimée, un taux de croissance suffisant pour faire baisser le chômage. Il atteindrait, à la fin 1999, environ 11% de la population active (au sens du BIT) .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 67 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 101-139

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_67_1_1518

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1518
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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