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Perspectives à moyen terme de l'économie française 1994-2000

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  • Loïc Cadiou
  • Gérard Cornilleau
  • Catherine Mathieu

Abstract

[eng] Forecasts for the French economy in 1994-2000 Loic Cadiou, Gerard Cornilleau, Catherine Mathieu France's growth rate should reach 3.5 % in 1995. Will this recovery be long-lasting ? In order to explore all the possibilites, two scenarios have been considered : the first one is characterised by a moderate growth rate in most countries (2.5 % from 1994 to 2000), and the second one by faster growth within the European Community (an average of 3.6 % from 1994 to 2000). In both cases, from the supply side, France could easily respond to its partners's demand. But beyond the investment cycle due to capacity adjustment (1995-1997), domestic demand would not reach a sufficient rate of increase to avoid the slowdown of growth. Indeed, the high level of unemployment, which limits real wage growth, and the rapid reduction of the public defict would strongly depress domestic demand. With an average growth rate of 2.4% from 1994 to 2000 in the first scenario, unemployment would barely be stabilised in spite of the decrease of the slope of labour productivity. In the second scenario, the faster reduction of public deficit due to stronger growth would allow a relaxation of fiscal policy and thus lead to a more dynamic domestic demand. If budge-tary policy were more accomodating still, French growth, which then could reach an average rate of 3.4 % over the next five years, would lead to a decrease of just one percentage point of the unemployment rate (300 000 persons from 1994 to 2000). This reduction would not be sufficient to eliminate the increase from the last slowdown period (800 000 more unemployed persons from 1990 to 1993). [fre] En 1995, la France devrait retrouver une croissance de l'ordre de 3,5 %. Ce regain est-il durable ? Pour explorer les évolutions possibles, deux scénarios ont été envisagés ; le premier est caractérisé par une croissance modérée dans la plupart des pays (2,5 % de 1994 à 2000), le second retient une croissance plus forte dans l'ution européenne (3,6 % de 1994 à 2000). Dans les deux cas, la France pourrait répondre facilement, du côté de l'offre, aux sollicitations de ses partenaires. Mais, au delà du cycle d'investissement lié à l'ajustement des capacités de production (1995-1997), la demande intérieure ne retrouverait pas un rythme suffisant pour empêcher l'affaiblissement de la croissance. En effet, le niveau élevé du chômage, qui limite la progression des salaires réels, et le rééquilibrage rapide des finances publiques pèseraient fortement sur l'évolution de la demande. Avec 2,4 % de croissance en moyenne de 1994 à 2000 dans le premier scénario, le chômage serait à peine stabilisé, malgré l'inflexion du rythme de croissance de la productivité du travail. Dans le second scénario, la réduction plus rapide du déficit public dans un contexte de plus forte croissance permettrait une politique budgétaire moins restrictive et un moindre infléchissement de la demande intérieure. Pourtant, même dans le cas d'une politique budgétaire encore plus accommodante, la croissance française, qui pourrait alors atteindre 3,4 % en moyenne au cours des cinq prochaines années, ne permettrait qu'une baisse de un point du taux de chômage (soit environ 300 000 chômeurs de moins de 94 à 2000). Cette réduction ne serait pas suffisante pour effacer les effets de la dernière phase de ralentissement (+ 800 000 chômeurs de 1990 à 1993).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 52 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 7-27

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_52_1_1384

Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1384
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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