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Quels « dividendes de la paix » pour la France ?

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  • Alain Quinet
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    Abstract

    [fre] La baisse des dépenses militaires mondiales en part deP.I.В . observée depuis la fin des années quatre-vingt est d'ampleur très inégale selon les pays : forte aux Etats-Unis et dans les pays de l'ex-U.R.S.S., sensiblement plus faible en Europe de l'Ouest. Cette baisse des dépenses militaires bénéficie avant tout aux pays qui, comme les Etats-Unis, ont pu réduire leur déficit budgétaire, ainsi qu'aux pays qui ne disposent pas d'industrie militaire. Ceux-ci profitent pleinement de la baisse du taux d'intérêt « mondial » liée à la résorption des déficits publics et d'une augmentation du commerce civil. Dans le cas de la France, ces gains macro-économiques risquent d'être occultés dans l'immédiat par l'effort de rationalisation qui s'impose à notre outil de défense. L'adaptation de l'industrie de défense s'organise autour de trois axes dont on montre l'intérêt et les limites : maintenir un effort de recherche tout en favorisant les retombées vers la sphère civile ; faciliter la conversion des entreprises d'armement ; encourager les coopérations à l'échelle européenne. [eng] Military spending fell markedly as a share of G.D.P. in the United States and in the former Soviet Union since the late 80s. Western Europe by contrast had a more modest decline. Worldwide military spending cuts lead to substantial gains for countries, such as the United States, which small military sectors. These countries benefit from lowered interest rates associated with public deficit reductions and from shirts in demand for civilian products. In the case of France, these macroeconomic gains may be masked in the short run by the need to rationalise our defense industry. The scope for adapting our defense industry can be analysed along three lines : maintaining research and development programs while enhancing spinoffs to civilian production ; facilitating the conversion of military-oriented firms ; favoring cooperations at the European level.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 101-120

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1997_num_12_3_1028

    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1997.1028
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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