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La croissance potentielle de l'économie française. Une évaluation

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  • Sébastien Doisy
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    Abstract

    [fre] Cet article souligne le rôle des concepts de croissance potentielle et d'écart de production dans l'évaluation de la performance de l'économie française et dans la conduite des politiques macroéconomiques. Fondées sur une approche de type économique, les évaluations présentées suggèrent que la croissance potentielle de l'économie française - définie comme le rythme de croissance compatible avec une inflation stable - a été rehaussée au cours de la seconde moitié des années 1990, passant de 2 à 2,5 % par an. En 2000, après trois années de croissance forte, l'économie française a vraisemblablement comblé son retard de demande. L'accélération transitoire du potentiel d'offre s'explique par l'amélioration structurelle de l'emploi et le dynamisme récent de l'investissement. À moyen terme, ce rythme de croissance potentielle devrait perdurer et pourrait atteindre 3 % par an, dans l'hypothèse où l'investissement des entreprises resterait dynamique et les mesures d'aide au retour à l'emploi manifesteraient pleinement leurs effets sur le chômage structurel et les taux d'activité. [eng] Potential growth of the french economy - an assessment. . This paper reviews the use of potential growth and output gap estimates for the assessment of the structural performance of the french economy and the orientation of macroeconomic policies. Based on a production function approach, these estimates suggest that the potential growth of the french economy - i.e. the output growth rate consistent with a stable inflation rate—has raised during the second hall of the nineties from 2 to 2,5% yoy. Since 1997 the french economy has grown above potential, closing the output gap apparently in 2000. The raise of structural employment and the vigorous capital accumulation contributed to this transitory acceleration of potential output. In the medium run, this potential growth rate may be maintained and could raise to 3% yoy if investment remains strong and labour market reforms lead to the expected decline of structural unemployment and rise of the participation rate.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 611-624

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2002_num_53_3_410431

    Note: DOI:10.2307/3502991
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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