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Les caractéristiques d'une décision séquentielle. Effet irréversibilité et endogénéisation de l'environnement

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  • Alban Richard
  • Michel Trommetter

Abstract

[fre] Les caractéristiques d'une décision séquentielle. Effet irréversibilité et endogénéisation de l'environnement. . L'analyse de la flexibilité est fondée sur les modèles séquentiels en information croissante. La décision initiale d'un modèle séquentiel a des conséquences plus larges que celles envisagées dans la théorie traditionnelle. Pour l'enrichir, nous étudions les conséquences d'une décision et introduisons la distinction entre en­vironnement exogène et endogène, avant d'analyser la flexibilité dynamique dans ces deux cas. Dans les contextes complexes, nous verrons qu'il est impossible de donner une valeur d'option à la flexibilité et que le concept lui-même devient ambigu, du fait d'un arbitrage entre les différentes caractéristiques de la décision. Ces différents compléments sont illustrés par un exemple : les choix d'investissement soumis à un risque pays. [eng] The characteristics of a sequential decision: the irreversibility effect and the endogenization of environment. . The analysis of flexibility is based upon sequential models with growing information. The initial decision of a sequential model has consequences larger than those envisaged in the traditional "theory of decision". To enrich it we study consequences of a decision and introduce the distinction between exogenous and endogenous environment, before analyzing the dynamic flexibility in both cases. In complex contexts, we will prove that we cannot give an option value to the flexibility and that the concept becomes itself ambiguous. It confirms the necessity to arbi­trage between the different characteristics of the decision. These analysis comple­ments will be illustrated on an example: the choice of an investment with a country risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 52 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 739-752

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_3_410353

Note: DOI:10.2307/3502886
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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Cited by:
  1. Olivier Godard, 2005. "The precautionary principle. Between social norms and economic constructs," Working Papers hal-00243008, HAL.

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