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Which is the Best Debt Relief Policy For Emerging Markets?

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  • Patrick Artus
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    Abstract

    [eng] We build a model where one borrowing emerging country receives both public and private loans. If its economic situation worsens, the cancellation of a part of the public loans will enable it to avoid defaulting on its private loans, but the fact that the intervention of public lenders is expected leads to an excess of private lending compared to the socially optimal level. If there is no discrimination between private and public lenders, which means that the same proportion of private and public loans is cancelled, the moral hazard effect disappears, but the risk of default by lending banks appears. This paper examines a debt relief programme which may be implemented in the event of difficulty in the borrowing country and which does not lead to the two above-mentioned shortcomings. [fre] Quelle est la meilleure politique d'allégement de la dette des pays émergents ?. . Nous construisons un modèle où un pays émergent emprunteur reçoit à la fois des prêts publics et des prêts privés. S'il est en difficulté, l'abandon d'une partie des prêts publics permet d'éviter le défaut sur les prêts privés, mais l'anticipation de cette intervention des prêteurs publics conduit à un excès de prêt privé par rapport au niveau socialement optimal. S'il y a absence de discrimination entre prêteurs privés et prêteurs publics, c'est-à-dire abandon d'une partie similaire des deux types de prêts, l'aléa de moralité disparaît, mais les banques prêteuses peuvent être conduites à la faillite. Nous nous demandons s'il est possible d'imaginer un système d'allégement de la dette en cas de difficulté du pays emprunteur qui évite les deux inconvénients mentionnés ci-dessus, et sont supérieurs à d'autres propositions faites dans la littérature : rationnement de l'offre de prêt privé ou incertitude sur l'intervention des prêteurs publics.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 52 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 303-317

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410317

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