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Le vieillissement de la population française est inéluctable

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  • Jean-Claude Labat
  • Dinh Quang Chi
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    Abstract

    [fre] D'ici l'an 2000, la population française s'accroîtra de trois ou quatre millions. Les plus de 60 ans seront 12 millions, contre 10 millions actuellement. La population en âge d'activité, plus nombreuse qu'aujourd'hui, sera une population vieillie. Seul le nombre des jeunes est difficile à prévoir, en raison de l'incertitude pesant sur la fécondité. Avec 1,8 enfant par femme, valeur proche du niveau actuel, les jeunes de moins de 20 ans ne seraient plus que 15 millions en l'an 2000. Il faudrait un retour à une fécondité de 2,1 enfants par femme pour maintenir les moins de 20 ans au voisinage des 16 millions actuels. Il semble en revanche acquis que la mortalité continuera à baisser; mais à quel rythme? Quelles que soient les hypothèses, les effets seront surtout sensibles après l'an 2000. . Une baisse de la fécondité d'ici la fin du siècle ne ferait décroître la population totale qu'au-delà de l'an 2000, et plus sûrement vers 2020. Si le nombre d'enfants par femme tombait à 1 ,5, la population repasserait sous le seuil des 50 millions d'habitants d'ici 50 ans. [eng] The aging of the french population is ineluctable - Between now and the year 2000, the French population will grow by three or four million. There will be 12 million persons over the age of 60, as compared to 10 million today. The working population will be more numerous, but older. Only the number of young people is difficult to estimate, because of the uncertainty concerning the birth rate. Supposing 1.8 children per female, a value close to the present level, there would not be more than 1 5 million young people under 20 in the year 2000. In order to maintain the number of young people under 20 in the range of the present 1 6 million, a return to a birth rate of 2.1 children per female would be necessary. On the other hand, a continuing drop in the death rate seems established. But at what rythm ? Whatever the hypothesis, the effects will be appreciable, above all, after the year 2000. . A drop in the birth rate between now and the end of the century would decrease the total population only after the year 2000, and more certainly towards 2020. If the number of children per female were to fall to 1 .5, the population would fall below the threshold of 50 million in habitants within 50 years. [spa] El envejecimiento de la población francesa es ineluctable - Del año 2000 acá, la población francesa se incrementarà en tres o cuatro millones. Los que pasan de los 60 años seran 12 millones contra 10 millones en la actualidad, la población de edad de activitad, mes numerosa que ahora sera una población envejecida. Tan solo el número de los jóvenes resulta dificil prever a razón de la incertidumbre que pesa sobre la fecundidad. Con 1,8 hijo por mujer, valor muy parecido al nivel actual, los jóvenes que no han cumplido los veinte anos no se elevarian más que a 15 millones en el año 2000. Seria preciso volver a una fecundidad de 2,1 hijos por mujer para mantener a los menores de veinte años en los 16 millones de hoy dia. Parece ser, en cambio, que la mortalidad seguirá decrecendo, mas a que ritmo ? Furen cual fueren las hipotésis, los efectos se venficarán sensibles despues del año 2000. . Un descrecimiento de la fecundidad de ahora a fines del siglo, no haria decrecer la población total que más alla del año 2000 y seguramente hacia 2020. Si el número de hijas por mujer llegase a 1,5, la población volveria a pasar a los 50 millones de habitantes de 50 años acá.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

    Volume (Year): 190 (1986)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 5-15

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1986_num_190_1_2477

    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1986.2477
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/estat

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