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Le nombre des chômeurs

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  • Olivier Marchand
  • Claude Thélot
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    Abstract

    [fre] Combien de personnes sont touchées par le chômage ? Environ deux millions. Ce nombre a-t-il fortement augmenté ces dernières années ? Il a doublé depuis 1976. Les deux instruments de mesure du chômage les plus utilisés s'accordent sur ces réponses. Mais si l'on veut dépasser ces simples ordres de grandeur, des divergences apparaissent. L'enquête « emploi » de mars 1983 estimait à 1,85 million le nombre des chômeurs selon les normes internationales. A la même date, l'Agence nationale pour l'emploi recensait 2,05 millions de demandeurs, et même 2,25 millions en incluant ceux qui recherchaient un emploi à temps partiel ou à durée déterminée. Les divergences sont également sensibles en matière d'évolution : selon l'enquête, le chômage a crû de 850 000 personnes en sept ans; selon l'ANPE, il a crû de 1 100 000. Peut-on rendre compte de ces écarts, au demeurant très variables pour les hommes et pour les femmes, pour les jeunes, les adultes ou les plus âgés ? De nombreuses explications sont avancées, en particulier celle-ci : les demandeurs inscrits à l'Agence sont, par suite de l'évolution du marché du travail, plus nombreux à être classés selon les normes internationales soit comme actifs ayant un emploi soit comme inactifs. Mais les explications envisagées restent partielles. Il est d'ailleurs naturel que deux mesures très différentes dans leur mode d'obtention comme dans les conventions qui les sous-tendent conduisent à des estimations distinctes. Si l'écart résiduel n'affecte qu'assez peu le jugement sur l'évolution à moyen terme du chômage et sur ses caractéristiques structurelles, il rend délicate toute interprétation des variations à court terme. [eng] The number of unemployed - How many people are effected by unemployment? About two million. Has this number incrased in the last few years? It has doubled since 1976. » The two means of measuring unemployment that are the most frequently used agree on these responses. But if we wish to delve more deeply into the question, divergences appear. The employment survey of March 1983 estimated at 1.85 million the number of unemployed, according to international norms. At the same time, the National Agency for Employment counted 2.05 million unemployed, and even 2.25 million unemployed if one counted those looking for temporary or part-time employment. Divergences also occur among the statistics when looking at the evolution of the situation. According to the survey, unemployment grew by 850,000 in seven years. According to the National Agency for Employment, it grew by 1,100,000. How can one account for these differences, which are quite varied according to whether it concerns men or women, the young, adults or more advanced in age? Many explanations are given, and in particular this one : those enrolled at the National Agency are, by the nature of the evolution of the work market, more likely to be classified, according to international norms as active on the market with a job, or simply inactive. But these explanations remain partial, it is natural that two types of measurements with different means of calculation as well as different conventions which underlie them should lead to different estimations. If the residual difference effects only slightly the judgement on the evolution of unemployment in the short term, and on the structural characteristics, it makes more difficult any interpretation on the short term.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/estat.1983.4802
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

    Volume (Year): 160 (1983)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 29-45

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1983_num_160_1_4802

    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1983.4802
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/estat

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