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Vers une modélisation macro-économique rationnelle ?

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  • Pierre Malgrange
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    Abstract

    [eng] Towards Rational Macroeconomic Modeling? Pierre Malgrange . The purpose of this paper is to explain and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the quarterly PLM model of the French economy, which is based on a pattern of intertemporal optimisation and rational expectations. We first of all present a very simple specification, which is similar to the canonical model of optimal growth and integrates government spending. This structure is then enhanced step by step, first by the opening up of the economy and the factoring in of nominal wage rigidity. Then we introduce monopolistic competition and lastly various viscosities resulting in the persistence of a certain number of mechanisms. Characterisation is attained by making a "responses to impetus" analysis, i.e. by calculating the multipliers associated with the two generic supply and demand shocks. [fre] Vers une modélisation macro-économique rationnelle ? . Pierre Malgrange . L'objet de l'article consiste en une explicitation et une évaluation des forces et faiblesses d'une maquette trimestrielle de l'économie française basée sur un comportement d'optimisation intertemporelle et d'anticipations rationnelles, le modèle PIM. Nous présentons d'abord une spécification très simple, proche du modèle canonique de croissance optimale, intégrant les dépenses gouvernementales. Cette structure est alors enrichie pas à pas, d'abord par l'ouverture de l'économie ainsi que par la prise en compte d'une rigidité des salaires nominaux. Puis nous introduisons la concurrence monopolistique, enfin diverses viscosités engendrant une persistance d'un certain nombre de mécanismes. La caractérisation est réalisée par l' analyse dite des "réponses aux impulsions" , autrement dit, par le calcul des multiplicateurs associés aux deux chocs génériques d'offre et de demande.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1996.5808
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5808/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5808.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 125 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 61-72

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5808

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5808
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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