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Riziko a nejistota ve strategickém rozhodování
[Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making]

Author

Listed:
  • Jiří Fotr
  • Lenka Švecová

Abstract

Importance of risk and uncertainty in present period of dynamic changes grows. The article deals with risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making. First the concepts of risk and uncertainty and possibilities of their measurement are discussed. Further shortcomings of strategic decision making from the point of view risk integration are described. The emphasis is on discussion of decision making methods under risk and uncertainty (including decision tables, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, real options, decision trees, multicriteria utility function under risk, theory of games and methods of portfolio development) as supporting tools for strategic decision making. In the last part of the article some recommendations for integration of risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making based on scenario approach are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Fotr & Lenka Švecová, 2006. "Riziko a nejistota ve strategickém rozhodování [Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 87-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2006:y:2006:i:1:id:548:p:87-107
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.548
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk; uncertainty; risk measurement; strategic decision making; scenario planning; decision support;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L19 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Other

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