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Risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making

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  • Jiří Fotr
  • Lenka Švecová
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    Abstract

    Importance of risk and uncertainty in present period of dynamic changes grows. The article deals with risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making. First the concepts of risk and uncertainty and possibilities of their measurement are discussed. Further shortcomings of strategic decision making from the point of view risk integration are described. The emphasis is on discussion of decision making methods under risk and uncertainty (including decision tables, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, real options, decision trees, multicriteria utility function under risk, theory of games and methods of portfolio development) as supporting tools for strategic decision making. In the last part of the article some recommendations for integration of risk and uncertainty in strategic decision making based on scenario approach are suggested.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Politická ekonomie.

    Volume (Year): 2006 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 87-107

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    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2006:y:2006:i:1:id:548:p:87-107

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    Related research

    Keywords: risk; uncertainty; risk measurement; strategic decision making; scenario planning; decision support;

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