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Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state

Author

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  • Yevgeniy Feyman
  • Jacob Bor
  • Julia Raifman
  • Kevin N Griffith

Abstract

State “shelter-in-place” (SIP) orders limited the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. However, impacts may have varied by state, creating opportunities to learn from states where SIPs have been effective. Using a novel dataset of state-level SIP order enactment and county-level mobility data form Google, we use a stratified regression discontinuity study design to examine the effect of SIPs in all states that implemented them. We find that SIP orders reduced mobility nationally by 12 percentage points (95% CI: -13.1 to -10.9), however the effects varied substantially across states, from -35 percentage points to +11 percentage points. Larger reductions were observed in states with higher incomes, higher population density, lower Black resident share, and lower 2016 vote shares for Donald J. Trump. This suggests that optimal public policies during a pandemic will vary by state and there is unlikely to be a “one-size fits all” approach that works best.

Suggested Citation

  • Yevgeniy Feyman & Jacob Bor & Julia Raifman & Kevin N Griffith, 2020. "Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0245008
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245008
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Distancing and Lockdown > Measurement and effect on mobility

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    Cited by:

    1. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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