Individual and familial factors predict formation and improvement of adolescents’ academic expectations: A longitudinal study in Sweden

Background: Adolescents’ high academic expectations predict future health and successful societal integration. Yet, little is known about which factors may promote adolescents’ expectations of their future education and academic achievement. Aims: To explore whether potentially modifiable factors such as parents’ engagement and expectations regarding their child’s education; or student individual factors such as school engagement, academic achievement, sense of identity, and positive mental health predict positive development of academic expectations in early adolescence. Methods: A longitudinal study of 3,203 adolescents and their parents was conducted with information collected between 7th grade (13 years of age) and 9th grade (16 years of age). Parental and adolescents’ own academic expectations and engagement in school, academic achievement, identity synthesis, and mental health were self-reported in annual questionnaires. We used logistic regression to analyze the associations between the aforementioned factors and two binary outcomes related to changes in expectations from 7th to 9th grade: A. resolved uncertainty regarding own academic expectations; B. raised academic expectations. Results: Student engagement, and higher academic grades predicted both resolved uncertainty in expectations and raised academic expectations. Higher parental involvement in education was related to resolved uncertainty, while high parental expectations were related to raised student expectations. Identity synthesis and mental health did not appear to predict either outcome. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that a supportive parental attitude concerning their child’s education during adolescence, student engagement, and positive progressions in academic achievements may contribute to a positive development of academic expectations, thus to positive educational trajectories.