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Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago

Author

Listed:
  • Desarae Echevarria
  • Alexander Gutfraind
  • Basmattee Boodram
  • Marian Major
  • Sara Del Valle
  • Scott J Cotler
  • Harel Dahari

Abstract

Background/Aim: New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) provide an opportunity to combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here we use a mathematical model to predict the impact of a DAA-treatment scale-up on HCV prevalence among PWID and the estimated cost in metropolitan Chicago. Methods: To estimate the HCV antibody and HCV-RNA (chronic infection) prevalence among the metropolitan Chicago PWID population, we used empirical data from three large epidemiological studies. Cost of DAAs is assumed $50,000 per person. Results: Approximately 32,000 PWID reside in metropolitan Chicago with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 47% or 15,040 cases. Approximately 22,000 PWID (69% of the total PWID population) attend harm reduction (HR) programs, such as syringe exchange programs, and have an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 30%. There are about 11,000 young PWID (

Suggested Citation

  • Desarae Echevarria & Alexander Gutfraind & Basmattee Boodram & Marian Major & Sara Del Valle & Scott J Cotler & Harel Dahari, 2015. "Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0135901
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135901
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