Power Law versus Exponential State Transition Dynamics: Application to Sleep-Wake Architecture

Background: Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot. Methodology/Principal Findings: To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the “incorrect” model over a range of parameters. The “zone of mimicry” of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions. Conclusions/Significance: Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture.