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A Top-Down Econometric Model for a Philippine Region

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  • Rolando A. Danao

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of constructing a supply-determined top-down econometric model for a Philippine region. The specification, estimation, historical simulation, and ex-post forecast of the model for Region 7 (Central Visayas) are presented. The simulation shows that the model tracks the sample period and ex-post values fairly well. The model could serve as a prototype for the other regions. The regional models could form a system of satellite models that could be linked to a national model which can then be used to determine regional forecasts consistent with a national forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando A. Danao, 1991. "A Top-Down Econometric Model for a Philippine Region," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 28(2), pages 127-153, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:28:y:1991:i:2:p:127-153
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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/256/444
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