The Planning and Management of the Owner’s Earning with Using Simulation Modelling

This papers aimed at the usage of automatic control systems by the financial situation of a company. The solution of this task includes three steps. The first step is the creation and the forecast of the integrated factor which define the financial condition of a company. Owner’s earnings were selected as this factor. Then analyse the level of influence of the financial coefficients on the selected integrated factor. The second step is the creation of the estimated vector. The method of the assessment of company’s financial position using the new characteristic – “the length of the integrated factor”, which defines by financial and statistical coefficients. The vector allows dividing the array of initial data into two parts related to satisfactory and pre-crisis periods of the enterprise, that makes possible to build a separate forecast model for the main indicator for crisis data and for satisfactory data. Probability density functions were built for each group of data. The final step is the modelling on purpose to find the optimum value of owner’s earnings of the company using a change of financial coefficients were recommended like as management decisions. Authors present the block diagram of the below steps for solving the task set: the creation of listed ratios, the calculation of the estimated vector and the determination of rational values of management decisions. Shows the results of two simulations experiments for Russian steel company – NLMK group.