Efekt wypychania prywatnych transferow przez publiczny system emerytalny[The crowding out effect due to the introduction of the pension system]

Motivation: According to the World Bank, the introduction of pension system crowds out 20–91% of private transfers. The effect is particularly strong for the poorest households, which shall be main beneficiaries of this reform. According to the views presented in literature, this inclines to the questioning of the pension system itself. Aim: The aim of the article is to answer the question, whether the introduction of obligatory pension system results in fact in crowding out of private transfers aimed to older people and, if the answer is positive, estimate the scale of the effect. It would allow to assess the effectiveness of the introduction of the pension system. Materials and methods: A critical review of empirical studies, presented in the literature was conducted and then verified using a modified OLG (overlapping generations) model. The simulation was made in the Dynare/Octave program. Results: It has been proved that even if the crowding out effect existed in its strongest form, it would not annihilate the sense of pension system. In the contrary, introduction of the latter would be profitable even in such a case — it would contribute to increase of consumption and social welfare.