A fuzzy integrated logical forecasting (FILF) model of time charter rates in dry bulk shipping: A vector autoregressive design of fuzzy time series with fuzzy c-means clustering
AbstractFuzzy time series (FTS) is a method of making educated guesses by using fuzzy intervals, which correspond to time series clusters. It is also useful for data noise reduction and is based on rule-based forecasting. The aim of this article is to develop a vector autoregressive fuzzy integrated logical forecasting (VAR-FILF) model for time charter rates of Panamax and Handymax bulk carriers. Results are tested by using Chen's FTS method (cFTS), bivariate cFTS (Bi-cFTS) method and conventional time series methods, and the accuracy of the VAR-FILF method is found to be higher than these methods. In addition, the length of intervals affects the forecasting result and the accuracy of forecasting. Therefore, this study proposes the fuzzy C-means clustering method for the structuring of the fuzzy length of intervals of the FTS forecasting process.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Maritime Economics & Logistics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.