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Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Development Policies: A Systematic Comparison of Different Estimation Methods Using Out-of-sample Tests

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  • Nazaire Houssou

    (University of Hohenheim (490A), Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Manfred Zeller

    (University of Hohenheim (490A), Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract

Selon une croyance de longue date, un ciblage précis des pauvres peut améliorer l′efficacité des politiques de développement. Alors qu′un certain nombre de facteurs, tels que la mauvaise gouvernance, les méthodes de ciblage inadéquates, l′ingérence ou le manque de volonté politique, peuvent expliquer le faible taux de ciblage des programmes de développement, cet article cherche à améliorer les modèles conçus à partir d'indicateurs socio-économiques pouvant identifier plus précisement des ménages pauvres. En utilisant une procédure de régression séquentielle et de validation hors échantillon, ce travail a développé des modèles opérationnels pouvant servir à l'identification et au ciblage des ménages pauvres dans les zones rurales et urbaines du Malawi. Ces modèles se sont révélés bien valides dans des échantillons indépendants. Ils peuvent donc être utilisés pour cibler un large éventail de programmes de développement dans le pays. En outre, cette étude peut être étendue à d′autres pays en développement.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal European Journal of Development Research.

Volume (Year): 24 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 465-490

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Handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:24:y:2012:i:3:p:465-490

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