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Assessing the accuracy of business‐level forecasts

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Author Info

  • Pete Brodie

    (Office for National Statistics)

  • Tullio Buccellato

    (Office for National Statistics)

  • Eric Scheffel

    (Office for National Statistics)

Abstract

SummaryThis article presents original work on some aspects of forecasting at the individual business‐ or firm‐level. In particular, two ways are suggested for assessing the accuracy of these forecasts based on the calculation of average percentage errors and the construction of a 95 per cent confidence interval. It is found that the quality of forecasts tend to become increasingly unreliable after two years and that the decay in forecast quality is inversely related to the frequency of the time series ‐ that is the less often a time series is updated/published the faster the deterioration in forecast quality.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Economic & Labour Market Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 119-134

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Handle: RePEc:pal:ecolmr:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:119-134

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