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Forecasting Recession and Slow-Down Probabilities with Markov Switching Probabilities as Right-Hand-Side Variables

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  • Gad Levanon

Abstract

Forecasting the likelihood of recessions and slow-downs is an important issue for many who use economics in business. While there has been a large and growing body of literature on the likelihood or recessions, there has been little on slow-downs.. This paper presents a new method that uses Markov switching probabilities as right-hand-side variables. The advantages of doing so are described, as are the results of empirical work. These results suggest that the approach presented here is worth adding to economists’ tool kits.

Suggested Citation

  • Gad Levanon, 2011. "Forecasting Recession and Slow-Down Probabilities with Markov Switching Probabilities as Right-Hand-Side Variables," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 99-110, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:46:y:2011:i:2:p:99-110
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    Cited by:

    1. Aaron H. Anglin & Aaron F. McKenny & Jeremy C. Short, 2018. "The Impact of Collective Optimism on New Venture Creation and Growth: A Social Contagion Perspective," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 42(3), pages 390-425, May.
    2. James A Wilcox, 2015. "The Home Purchase Sentiment Index: A New Housing Indicator," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 178-190, October.
    3. Zihao Wang & Kun Li & Steve Q. Xia & Hongfu Liu, 2021. "Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network," Papers 2107.10980, arXiv.org.

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