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La pauvreté en Guinée de 1994 à 2007 : Tendances, perceptions et priorités des ménages/Poverty in Guinea from 1994 to 2007: Trends, Perceptions, and Household Priorities

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  • Prospère Backiny-Yetna
  • Quentin Wodon

Abstract

Depuis 2003, la Guinée est entrée dans une crise économique profonde, ce qui a contribué à exacerber la pauvreté qui était déjà importante. L’objectif de cet article est de présenter une analyse de la tendance et du profil de la pauvreté en Guinée à partir des trois dernières enquêtes auprès des ménages de 1994/95, 2002/03 et 2007. Les estimations suggèrent que le pourcentage de la population vivant en dessous du seuil de pauvreté s’établit à 53,0 pourcent en 2007, par rapport à 49,1 pourcent en 2002. Les informations sur les perceptions des ménages confirment que leur situation s’est dégradée. Il est probable que la hausse récente des prix des produits alimentaires ait contribué à une augmentation additionnelle des indicateurs de pauvreté. Ce constat assez pessimiste ne doit cependant pas conduire à un fatalisme. La situation économique qui prévaut aujourd’hui est très différente de celle qui a prévalu entre 1994 et 2002, une période pendant laquelle l’économie du pays a enregistré une forte croissance du PIB par tête. Une analyse comparative des enquêtes réalisées en 1994/95 et 2002/03 conduit à une baisse de la pauvreté de 62,6 pourcent en 1994 à 49,1 pourcent en 2002. Si le pays parvenait à mettre fin aux contre-performances économiques enregistrées au cours des dernières années et à relancer la croissance, la pauvreté pourrait à nouveau être réduite. Since 2003, Guinea has been affected by a deep economic crisis that has contributed to exacerbating already high levels of poverty. This paper documents poverty trends in Guinea using the last three household surveys available, implemented in 1994/95, 2002/03, and 2007. The estimates suggest that the share of the population living in poverty increased to 53,0 percent in 2007 from 49,1 percent in 2002. Data on household perceptions confirm that standards of living have been negatively affected and it is likely that the increase in food prices observed recently contributed to an additional increase in poverty levels. These findings should however not lead to fatalism. Between 1994 and 2002, a period during which the economy benefited from strong GDP growth, the analysis of the 1994/95 and 2002/03 surveys suggests that the share of the population in poverty fell from 62,6 percent in 1994 to 49,1 percent in 2002. Thus if the country’s economy were to rebound and perform strongly in the future leading to growth in GDP per capita, poverty could be reduced again.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Association Africaine pour les Sciences sociales in its journal Perspective Afrique.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1-3 ()
Pages: 1-32

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Handle: RePEc:paf:journl:v:5:y:2010:i:1-3:p:1-32

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Keywords: Poverty; Guinea;

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