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Going Underwater? Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics

Author

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  • Laura A Bakkensen
  • Lint Barrage

Abstract

How do climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing markets? This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence. First, we build a dynamic housing market model and show that belief heterogeneity can reconcile prior mixed evidence on flood risk capitalization. Second, we implement a door-to-door survey in Rhode Island, finding significant flood risk underestimation and sorting based on risk perceptions and amenity values. Third, we estimate that coastal prices exceed fundamentals by 6-13 in our benchmark area, with potentially higher overvaluation in other locations. Finally, we quantify both allocative inefficiency and distributional consequences arising from flood risk misperceptions and insurance policy reform.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura A Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2022. "Going Underwater? Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3666-3709.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:8:p:3666-3709.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab122
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    2. Ferreira, Susana, 2024. "Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 16715, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. aus dem Moore, Nils & Brehm, Johannes & Breidenbach, Philipp & Ghosh, Arijit & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Flood risk perception after indirect flooding experience: Null results in the German housing market," Ruhr Economic Papers 976, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    6. Adam R. Swietek, 2023. "Automated Design Appraisal: Estimating Real Estate Price Growth and Value at Risk due to Local Development," Papers 2401.08645, arXiv.org.
    7. Pollack, Adam & Helgeson, Casey & Kousky, Carolyn & Keller, Klaus, 2023. "Transparency on underlying values is needed for useful equity measurements," OSF Preprints kvyxr, Center for Open Science.
    8. Harrison Hong & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2023. "Mitigating Disaster Risks in the Age of Climate Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1763-1802, September.
    9. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2024. "Climate risks and forecastability of the weekly state‐level economic conditions of the United States," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 154-162, March.
    10. Matteo Benetton & Simone Emiliozzi & Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto & Alessandro Mistretta, 2022. "Do house prices reflect climate change adaptation? Evidence from the city on the water," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 735, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Laura Bakkensen & Toan Phan & Russell Wong, 2023. "Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence," Working Paper 23-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Marie Lautrup & Lasse Læbo Matthiesen & Jette Bredahl Jacobsen & Toke Emil Panduro, 2023. "Welfare Effects and the Immaterial Costs of Coastal Flooding," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(2), pages 415-441, June.
    13. Siddhartha Biswas & Mallick Hossain & David Zink, 2023. "California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Long, Zi & Menon, Nidhiya, 2023. "Ocean Salinity, Early-Life Health, and Adaptation," IZA Discussion Papers 16463, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Bingler, Julia Anna & Colesanti Senni, Chiara & Monnin, Pierre, 2022. "Understand what you measure: Where climate transition risk metrics converge and why they diverge," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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