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Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ekkehart Boehmer
  • Zsuzsa R Huszár
  • Yanchu Wang
  • Xiaoyan Zhang
  • Xinran Zhang

Abstract

Using multiple short-sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short-sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with nonprohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekkehart Boehmer & Zsuzsa R Huszár & Yanchu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang & Xinran Zhang, 2022. "Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2428-2463.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:35:y:2022:i:5:p:2428-2463.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhab079
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Peng, Shu-Cing, 2023. "The role of social capital in price efficiency: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S. & Tian, Xiao, 2023. "Short selling, divergence of opinion and volatility in the corporate bond market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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