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The Real Effects of Uncertainty on Merger Activity

Author

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  • Vineet Bhagwat
  • Robert Dam
  • Jarrad Harford

Abstract

Firm values can substantially change between the time deal terms are set and the actual deal closing, risking renegotiation, or termination. We find increases in market volatility decrease subsequent deal activity, but only for public targets subject to an interim period. The effect is strongest when volatility is highest, for deals taking longer to close, and for larger targets. Merging parties attempt to shorten the interim window as risk increases. Firm- and industry-level uncertainty measures reveal similar findings, ruling out an unobserved macro variable. We conclude interim uncertainty contributes to understanding the timing and intensity of public firms’ merger activity.Received February 12, 2015; accepted May 23, 2016 by Editor David Denis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vineet Bhagwat & Robert Dam & Jarrad Harford, 2016. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty on Merger Activity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 3000-3034.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:11:p:3000-3034.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhw061
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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