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Time-Varying Liquidity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

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  • Akiko Watanabe
  • Masahiro Watanabe
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    Abstract

    This paper studies whether stock returns' sensitivities to aggregate liquidity fluctuations and the pricing of liquidity risk vary over time. We find that liquidity betas vary across two distinct states: one with high liquidity betas and the other with low betas. The high liquidity-beta state is short lived and characterized by heavy trade, high volatility, and a wide cross-sectional dispersion in liquidity betas. It also delivers a disproportionately large liquidity risk premium, amounting to more than twice the value premium. Our results are consistent with a model of liquidity risk in which investors face uncertainty about their trading counterparties' preferences. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhm054
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (November)
    Pages: 2449-2486

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2008:i:6:p:2449-2486

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    Cited by:
    1. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2011. "The Smallest Firm Effect: an International Study," Working Papers 2011/18, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    2. Stulz, Rene M. & Vagias, Dimitrios & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2013. "Do Firms Issue More Equity When Markets Are More Liquid?," Working Paper Series 2013-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    3. Erten, Irem & Okay, Nesrin, 2012. "Deciphering Liquidity Risk on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 56148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    4. Ana González & Gonzalo Rubio, 2011. "Portfolio choice and the effects of liquidity," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 53-74, March.
    5. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
    6. Nguyen, Nhut H. & Lo, Ka Hei, 2013. "Asset returns and liquidity effects: Evidence from a developed but small market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1175-1190.
    7. Poon, Ser-Huang & Rockinger, Michael & Stathopoulos, Konstantinos, 2013. "Market liquidity and institutional trading during the 2007–8 financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 86-97.
    8. Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013. "Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
    9. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
    10. Hagströmer, Björn & Nilsson, Birger & Hansson, Björn, 2011. "The components of the illiquidity premium: An empirical analysis of U.S. stocks 1927-2010," Working Papers 2011:24, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hearn, Bruce, 2010. "Time varying size and liquidity effects in South Asian equity markets: A study of blue-chip industry stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 242-257, September.
    12. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2013. "Unremunerated reserve requirements, exchange rate volatility, and firm value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 358-378.
    13. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Market Liquidity - Theory and Empirical Evidence," FMG Discussion Papers dp709, Financial Markets Group.
    14. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2012. "Idiosyncratic volatility vs. liquidity? Evidence from the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 217-242.
    15. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2013. "A new method for estimating liquidity risk: Insights from a liquidity-adjusted CAPM framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 184-197.
    16. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
    17. Hagströmer, Björn & Hansson, Björn & Nilsson, Birger, 2013. "The components of the illiquidity premium: An empirical analysis of US stocks 1927–2010," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4476-4487.
    18. Masahiro Watanabe, 2003. "A Model of Stochastic Liquidity," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm385, Yale School of Management.
    19. Wang, Jianxin, 2013. "Liquidity commonality among Asian equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1209-1231.
    20. Panayides, Photis M. & Lambertides, Neophytos & Cullinane, Kevin, 2013. "Liquidity risk premium and asset pricing in US water transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 3-15.
    21. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Liquidity on the Scandinavian Order-driven Stock Exchanges," CAFO Working Papers 2009:11, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
    22. Márquez, Elena & Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2014. "Stock returns with consumption and illiquidity risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 57-74.

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