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Whence GARCH? A Preference-Based Explanation for Conditional Volatility

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  • Grant McQueen
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    Abstract

    We develop a preference-based equilibrium asset pricing model that explains low-frequency conditional volatility. Similar to Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2001), agents in our model care about wealth changes, experience loss aversion, and keep a mental scorecard that affects their level of risk aversion. A new feature of our model is that when perturbed by unexpected returns, investors become temporarily more sensitive to news. Gradually investors become accustomed to the new level of wealth, restoring prior levels of risk aversion and news sensitivity. The state-dependent sensitivity to news creates the type of volatility clustering found in low-frequency stock returns. We find empirical support for our model's predictions that relate the scorecard to conditional volatility and skewness. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 915-949

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:17:y:2004:i:4:p:915-949

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    Cited by:
    1. Berkelaar, Arjan & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2009. "From boom 'til bust: How loss aversion affects asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1005-1013, June.
    2. Kin‐Yip Ho & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2012. "Dynamic Linkages among Financial Markets in the Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 500-523, 04.
    3. David Berger & Alain Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Hafedh Bouakez & Badye Omar Essid & Michel Normandin, 2010. "Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: Are There Any Ties ?," Cahiers de recherche 1026, CIRPEE.
    5. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jingyi Liu, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," ESE Discussion Papers 181, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. Lilia Karnizova, 2008. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Expectation Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 0804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    8. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2010. "Explaining asymmetric volatility around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 938-956, December.
    9. Chiang, Min-Hsien & Huang, Hsin-Yi, 2011. "Stock market momentum, business conditions, and GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-505, June.
    10. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Pagano, Michael S., 2007. "Convergence and risk-return linkages across financial service firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1167-1190, April.
    11. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    12. Bauer, Gregory H. & Vorkink, Keith, 2011. "Forecasting multivariate realized stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 93-101, January.
    13. repec:cuf:journl:y:2013:v:14:i:1:n:3:huang is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jizheng Huang & Heng-fu Zou, 2013. "Asset Pricing, Capital Structure and the Spirit of Capitalism in a Production Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(2), pages 367-384, November.
    15. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Linn, Scott C. & Zhu, Zhen, 2014. "The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.

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