IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/revfin/v25y2021i4p1261-1298..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Varying Crash Risk Embedded in Index Options: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity
[Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?]

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Bruno Feunou
  • Yoontae Jeon
  • Chayawat Ornthanalai

Abstract

We estimate a continuous-time model for the stock market index where the stochastic volatility and crash probability depend on the realized spot variance and the stock market illiquidity. We find that market illiquidity is a useful economic covariate in the modeling of time-varying stock market crash risk embedded in index options. The relative contribution of spot variance in the time-varying crash risk is weakened once the market illiquidity variable is added to the model, and out-of-sample option pricing error also improves. Examining the relationship between market illiquidity and option-implied crash risk, we find that the availability of arbitrage capital and adverse selection facing liquidity providers are potential economic links. Our study highlights the benefits of adding a market illiquidity measure to index return models with time-varying crash risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Christoffersen & Bruno Feunou & Yoontae Jeon & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2021. "Time-Varying Crash Risk Embedded in Index Options: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity [Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1261-1298.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:25:y:2021:i:4:p:1261-1298.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfaa040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option-implied crash risk; Market liquidity; Jump intensity; Filtering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:25:y:2021:i:4:p:1261-1298.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eufaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.