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Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports

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  • Phil L. Colling
  • Scott H. Irwin
  • Carl R. Zulauf

Abstract

This study investigates the rationality of pre-release expectations of experts concerning USDA Hogs and Pigs reports. The expectations are weak-form rational in that they are unbiased predictors of actual report values and the forecast errors are not autocorrelated. In a test of strong-form rationality, all of the economic variables examined were not related to the forecast errors. Thus, the evidence is that expectations of the Hogs and Pigs report are strong-form rational.

Suggested Citation

  • Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1992. "Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 263-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:14:y:1992:i:2:p:263-270.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1349505
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    2. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    3. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    4. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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