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Ambiguity Without a State Space

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  • David S. Ahn
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    Abstract

    Many decisions involve both imprecise probabilities and intractable states of the world. Objective expected utility assumes unambiguous probabilities; subjective expected utility assumes a completely specified state space. This paper analyses a third domain of preference: sets of consequential lotteries. Using this domain, we develop a theory of objective ambiguity without explicit reference to any state space. We characterize a representation that integrates a non-linear transformation of first-order expected utility with respect to a second-order measure. The concavity of the transformation and the weighting of the measure capture ambiguity aversion. We propose a definition for comparative ambiguity aversion. Copyright 2008, Wiley-Blackwell.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00473.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The Review of Economic Studies.

    Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 3-28

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:1:p:3-28

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    Cited by:
    1. Giuseppe De Marco & Maria Romaniello, 2014. "Variational Preferences and Equilibria in Games under Ambiguous Beliefs Correspondences," CSEF Working Papers 363, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    2. Marie-Louise Vierø, 2006. "Contracting in Vague Environments," Working Papers 1106, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Tridib Sharma & Radovan Vadovic, 2010. "Axiom of Monotonicity: An Experimental Test," Working Papers 1003, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM, revised 2011.
    4. Jörg Stoye, 2011. "Statistical decisions under ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 129-148, February.
    5. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2013. "Ambiguity, data and preferences for information – A case-based approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1433-1462.
    6. Chambers, Christopher P. & Hayashi, Takashi, 2010. "Bayesian consistent belief selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 432-439, January.
    7. Joerg Bleile, 2014. "Cautious Belief Formation," Working Papers 507, Bielefeld University, Center for Mathematical Economics.
    8. Martin Dumav & Maxwell B. Stinchcombe, 2013. "The von Neumann/Morgenstern approach to ambiguity," Working Papers 480, Bielefeld University, Center for Mathematical Economics.
    9. Wojciech Olszewski & Alvaro Sandroni, 2011. "Falsifiability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 788-818, April.
    10. David Cooper & David Johnson, 2013. "Ambiguity in Performance Pay: An Online Experiment," Working Papers 2013-27, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 14 Nov 2013.
    11. Sujoy Mukerji & Robin Cubitt & Gijs van de Kuilen, 2014. "Discriminating between Models of Ambiguity Attitude: A Qualitative Test," Economics Series Working Papers 692, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Blavatskyy, Pavlo R., 2013. "Two examples of ambiguity aversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 206-208.
    13. Daniel Krähmer & Rebecca Stone, 2013. "Anticipated regret as an explanation of uncertainty aversion," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 709-728, March.
    14. Higashi, Youichiro & Hyogo, Kazuya & Takeoka, Norio, 2009. "Subjective random discounting and intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1015-1053, May.
    15. William Neilson, 2010. "A simplified axiomatic approach to ambiguity aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 113-124, October.
    16. Takashi Hayashi & Ryoko Wada, 2010. "Choice with imprecise information: an experimental approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 355-373, September.
    17. Marie-Louise Vierø, 2009. "Exactly what happens after the Anscombe–Aumann race?," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 175-212, November.
    18. Eichberger, Jürgen & Guerdjikova, Ani, 2010. "Case-based belief formation under ambiguity," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 161-177, November.
    19. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00442869 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00502781 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff and Kyoungwon Seo, 2011. "Relevance and Symmetry," Economics Series Working Papers 539, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Giraud, Raphaël, 0. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: non-additive second order beliefs vs. nonlinear second order utility," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.

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