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A Credit Spread Puzzle for Reduced-Form Models

Author

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  • Antje Berndt

Abstract

Reduced-form models of default calibrated to expected default losses and comovements between default losses and an equity-based pricing kernel generate CDS spreads that tend to fall below historical values. In frictionless markets, resolving this credit spread puzzle requires credit-market investors, especially those in high-quality debt, to be more risk adverse than equity-market investors. In the absence of market segmentation, however, the puzzle points to a liquidity component that, depending on the model specification, can account for more than half of historical CDS spreads. These findings caution against fitting reduced-form models to CDS spreads without accounting for market segmentation or frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Antje Berndt, 2015. "A Credit Spread Puzzle for Reduced-Form Models," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 48-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:48-91.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/rav002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hatem Ben-Ameur & Tarek Fakhfakh & Alexandre Roch, 2024. "Valuing Corporate Securities When the Firm’s Assets are Illiquid," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 579-598, February.
    2. Antje Berndt & Rohan Douglas & Darrell Duffie & Mark Ferguson, 2018. "Corporate Credit Risk Premia [Fallen angels and price pressure]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 419-454.
    3. Senay Agca & Volodymyr Babich & John R. Birge & Jing Wu, 2022. "Credit Shock Propagation Along Supply Chains: Evidence from the CDS Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6506-6538, September.
    4. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos, 2019. "The role of household debt and delinquency decisions in consumption-based asset pricing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 179-203, June.
    5. Niu, Huawei & Hua, Wei, 2019. "An endogenous structural credit risk model incorporating with moral hazard and rollover risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 47-59.
    6. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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