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The Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test

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  • R. G. Hawtrey

Abstract

Experience revealed the trade cycle; deductive explanations followed and were invented to fit the statistical evidence, 471. — The trade cycle is above all a periodical fluctuation in manufacturing activity and in the price level, the two fluctuating together, 472. — Statistical records show the correspondence between the fluctuations of consumers' outlay, prices, and production, while theory has arrived at the generalization deductively, 475. — Monetary theory of the trade cycle suffices to account for periodicity of 7 to 11 years. The sequence of events, 477. — The theory depends upon the connection between currency in circulation and the gold supply; but since the War this condition has not been fulfilled, 478. — Tests of the capital-goods and money theories, 483. — Difficult to find statistical test of the psychological theory, 484.

Suggested Citation

  • R. G. Hawtrey, 1927. "The Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 41(3), pages 471-486.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:41:y:1927:i:3:p:471-486.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gehrke, Christian, 1997. "Introduction to Adolf Lowe's 'How is business cycle theory possible at all?'," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 233-244, June.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "What is a Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 3863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kutu Adebayo Augustine & Ngalawa Harold, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 35-55, December.
    4. Geoffrey Brooke & Anthony Endres & Alan Rogers, 2018. "The Economists and Monetary Thought in Interwar New Zealand: The Gradual Emergence of Monetary Policy Activism," Working Papers 2018-09, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.

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