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A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

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  • Robin Greenwood
  • Samuel Hanson
  • Jeremy C Stein
  • Adi Sunderam

Abstract

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the comovement between exchange rates and term premia, and the finding that central banks’ quantitative easing policies affect exchange rates. An extension of our model links spot exchange rates to the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Jeremy C Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2023. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2327-2389.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:138:y:2023:i:4:p:2327-2389.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/qjad024
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