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The history and future of AI

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  • Stuart Russell

Abstract

The standard model for developing AI systems assumes a fixed, known objective that the AI system is required to optimize through its actions. Systems developed within the standard model have been increasingly successful. I briefly summarize the state of the art and its likely evolution over the next decade. Substantial breakthroughs leading to general-purpose AI are much harder to predict, but they will have an enormous impact on the global economy and on human roles therein. At the same time, I expect that the standard model will become increasingly untenable in real-world applications because of the difficulty of specifying objectives completely and correctly. I propose a new model for AI development in which the machine’s uncertainty about the true objective leads to qualitatively new modes of behaviour that are more robust, controllable, and deferential.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Russell, 2021. "The history and future of AI," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 509-520.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:509-520.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grab013
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    Cited by:

    1. Buckmann, Marcus & Haldane, Andy & Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2021. "Comparing minds and machines: implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 937, Bank of England.

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