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The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Portes
  • Giuseppe Forte

Abstract

We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Portes & Giuseppe Forte, 2017. "The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 33(suppl_1), pages 31-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:33:y:2017:i:suppl_1:p:s31-s44.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grx008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; EU; GDP; immigration; wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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