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Unemployment Dynamics in the UK

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  • Henry, Brian
  • Nixon, James
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the determinants of unemployment in terms of its statistical correlates. At one extreme unemployment has been viewed as highly trended in the post war period, with the implication that equilibrium unemployment has followed a broadly similar path. Alternatively, unemployment can be viewed as a highly persistent series that departs for long periods from a more stable equilibria. This paper reports on reduced form models of unemployment and suggests that many exogenous variables that have typically been associated with movements in equilibrium unemployment have little explanatory power. Instead, unemployment may be characterised as a near unit root process driven by a mixture of mean shifting I(0) variables. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 52 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 224-47

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:52:y:2000:i:1:p:224-47

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    Cited by:
    1. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, 2002. "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 153, Bank of England.
    2. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & S. G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 221-239, 05.

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