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Local-Linear Estimation of Time-Varying-Parameter GARCH Models and Associated Risk Measures
[Modelling Volatility by Variance Decomposition]

Author

Listed:
  • Atsushi Inoue
  • Lu Jin
  • Denis Pelletier

Abstract

In this article, we propose a nonparametric approach to estimating generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1,1) models with time-varying parameters. We model the time-varying parameters as a smooth function of time and estimate them using a local linear estimator. We show that our estimator is consistent and is asymptotically normal and that the proposed estimator outperforms a rolling window estimator in Monte Carlo simulation experiments. We present strong evidence of parameter instabilities using daily returns of stock indices and explore implications to risk management measures, such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall, through backtesting.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsushi Inoue & Lu Jin & Denis Pelletier, 2021. "Local-Linear Estimation of Time-Varying-Parameter GARCH Models and Associated Risk Measures [Modelling Volatility by Variance Decomposition]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 202-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:19:y:2021:i:1:p:202-234.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbaa026
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Zongwu & Juhl, Ted, 2023. "The distribution of rolling regression estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1447-1463.
    2. Zongwu Cai & Ted Juhl, 2020. "The Distribution Of Rolling Regression Estimators," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202218, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Armin Pourkhanali & Jonathan Keith & Xibin Zhang, 2021. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Estimation and Asymptotics," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-varying parameters; expected shortfall; value-at-risk; realized volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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