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Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Aron, Janine
  • Ayogu, Melvin

Abstract

Are frequents in freely floating exchange rates attributable to stabilising speculation reflecting changes in the fundamental determinants of currencies or to destabilising behaviour of various kinds, driving prices away from fundamentals, and creating 'excess' volatility? This paper, motivated by the need to assess appropriate tests for efficiency for the growing range of liberalised and liberalising foreign exchange markets in Sub-Saharan African countries, has the following objectives: ( ) briefly to survey the empirical methodology for testing market efficiency in the forex market, with an emphasis on integrating the new cointegration methodology; (ii) highlighting the significant data difficulties in empirical work, given controls and frequent structural breaks, for the use of these techniques in Africa; (iii) illustrating the way in which some of these techniques can be applied in South Africa and some other African countries; and (iv) suggesting further research on efficiency that could be carried out using similar data. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 6 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (Supplement)
Pages: 150-92

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:150-92

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Cited by:
  1. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2006. "Testing for Efficiency in Selected Developing Foreign Exchange Markets: An Equilibrium-based Approach," Working Papers 0717, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & B. Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Franz Krige Siebrits & Elizabeth Wambach Niedermeier, 2004. "The determinants of inflation in South Africa: An econometric analysis," Research Papers RP_143, African Economic Research Consortium.

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