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Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China

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  • Ying Bai

Abstract

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

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  • Ying Bai, 2023. "Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1286-1317.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:133:y:2023:i:652:p:1286-1317.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uead004
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