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Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes

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  • Frode Martin Nordvik

Abstract

A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’état. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore volumes, oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader's point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword because it may turn against him and stage a coup.

Suggested Citation

  • Frode Martin Nordvik, 2019. "Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1425-1456.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:619:p:1425-1456.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.12604
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2021. "The Oil Nouveau-Riche and Arms Imports," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(4), pages 349-369.
    2. Alexandra Brausmann & Elise Grieg, 2020. "Resource Discoveries and the Political Survival of Dictators," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 20/345, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. Quentin Gallea & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Power in the Pipeline," Papers 2210.03572, arXiv.org.
    4. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Jonas Hveding Hamang, 2022. "Local economic development and oil discoveries," Working Papers No 03/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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