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Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment: A Reconsideration

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  • Palley, Thomas I

Abstract

The debate over the relative importance of sectoral and aggregate shocks in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate unemployment rate has centered on the relationship between unemployment, job vacancies, and the dispersion of sectoral employment growth rates (which proxies for sectoral shocks). This paper examines some possible theoretical relationships between these variables and, after decomposing unemployment into components attributable to sectoral and aggregate shocks, estimates the importance of each. It finds that fluctuations in unemployment are principally caused by aggregate shocks, but sectoral shifts explain a significant, albeit steady, amount of unemployment. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Palley, Thomas I, 1992. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment: A Reconsideration," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 117-133, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:30:y:1992:i:1:p:117-33
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzozowski, 2012. "Wpływ wahań produkcji i wielkości kredytu na wartość dodaną w polskim przemyśle przetwórczym," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 57-77.
    2. N. Groenewold & A.J. Hagger, 1997. "The Natural Unemployment Rate in Australia since the Seventies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Shu‐hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    4. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Job Reallocations: A Survey," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 5(2), pages 127-176, December.
    5. Nicolaas Groenewold & A. J. Hagger, 1998. "The Natural Unemployment Rate in Australia since the Seventies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(224), pages 24-35, March.
    6. Yanggyu Byun & Hae-shin Hwang, 2015. "Sectoral shifts or aggregate shocks? A new test of sectoral shifts hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 481-502, September.
    7. repec:rim:rimwps:27-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Frank Barry & Colm Kearney, 2003. "A Portfolio Analysis of Industrial Structure," Working Papers 200309, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper series 27_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    10. N. Groenewold & A.J. Hagger, 1997. "The US natural rate: A "Lilien" time-series, January 1948 to August 1996," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 2000. "Unemployment, Wage Pressure and Sectoral Shifts: Permanent and Temporary Consequences of Intersectoral Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 777-799, December.
    12. Paul R. Blackley, 1997. "The Short‐Run Relationship Between Sectoral Shifts and U.S. Labor Market Fluctuations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(2), pages 486-502, October.

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