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Certainty vs. Severity of Punishment

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Author Info
Grogger, Jeffrey

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Abstract

Recent research has generated conflicting findings regarding the role of employment and earnings versus criminal justice sanctions in reducing crime. Further disagreement exists over the relative effectiveness of increased certainty versus increased severity of punishment as deterrents to crime. This paper uses a large data set containing criminal and labor market histories of a broad sample of young male arrestees to estimate an economic model of crimes. Deterrence, incapacitation, and criminal human capital effects are measured, and the effects of employment and earnings on criminal activity are estimated. The results largely reconcile the conflicting findings from previous research. Copyright 1991 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 29 (1991)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 297-309
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:29:y:1991:i:2:p:297-309

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  1. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Antonio Merlo & Peter Rupert, 2006. "Understanding the determinants of crime," Working Paper 0602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Langlais, Eric, 2006. "Criminals and risk attitude," MPRA Paper 1149, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas A. Garrett & Lesli S. Ott, 2008. "City business cycles and crime," Working Papers 2008-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Avner Bar-Ilan & Bruce Sacerdote, 2001. "The Response to Fines and Probability of Detection in a Series of Experiments," NBER Working Papers 8638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hope Corman & H. Naci Mocan, 2000. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 584-604, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Steven D. Levitt, 1997. "Juvenile Crime and Punishment," NBER Working Papers 6191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Eric Langlais, 2007. "Detection avoidance and deterrence: some paradoxical arithmetics," Working Papers of BETA 2007-06, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jeff Grogger, 1997. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," NBER Working Papers 5983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "Identifying the Effect of Education on Crime. Evidence from the Italian Regions," Working Papers 65, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lance Lochner, 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 444-460, March. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Hope Corman & H. Naci Mocan, 1996. "A Time-Series Analysis of Crime and Drug Use in New York City," NBER Working Papers 5463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Entorf, Horst & Winkler, Peter, 2001. "The economics of crime: investigating the drugs-crime channel : empirical evidence from panel data of the German states," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-37, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Steven D. Levitt & Sudhir Alladi Venkatesh, 1998. "An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang's Finances," NBER Working Papers 6592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "Why Do Increased Arrest Rates Appear to Reduce Crime: Deterrence, Incapacitation, or Measurement Error?," NBER Working Papers 5268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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