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Forecasting errors by the Troika in the economic adjustment programme for Portugal

Author

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  • João Ferreira do Amaral
  • João Carlos Lopes

Abstract

This article presents an evaluation of the economic adjustment programme negotiated between the Portuguese government and the Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) in May 2011, using an assessment that is different from the usual studies. Instead of a comparison between the actual results and the proposed targets, an evaluation of the quality of the programme forecast is made, showing that errors could have been avoided if the productive (input–output) structure of the economy and also the unemployment rate/external deficit trade-off had been taken into account. The main conclusion of this assessment is that a large underestimation of the unemployment rate was made, amounting to about four percentage points, which illustrates the technical flaw of this adjustment programme and the huge economic and social costs it unnecessarily caused. The methodology used can easily be replicated for assessing other similar programmes, such those applied in Greece, Ireland and Cyprus.

Suggested Citation

  • João Ferreira do Amaral & João Carlos Lopes, 2017. "Forecasting errors by the Troika in the economic adjustment programme for Portugal," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(4), pages 1021-1041.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:41:y:2017:i:4:p:1021-1041.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bew046
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; External deficit; Economic adjustment programme; Troika; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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