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Observation-driven models for Poisson counts

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  • Richard A. Davis
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    Abstract

    This paper is concerned with a general class of observation-driven models for time series of counts whose conditional distributions given past observations and explanatory variables follow a Poisson distribution. These models provide a flexible framework for modelling a wide range of dependence structures. Conditions for stationarity and ergodicity of these processes are established from which the large-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators can be derived. Simulations are provided to give additional insight into the finite-sample behaviour of the estimators. Finally an application to a regression model for daily counts of asthma presentations at a Sydney hospital is described. Copyright Biometrika Trust 2003, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Biometrika Trust in its journal Biometrika.

    Volume (Year): 90 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 777-790

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:90:y:2003:i:4:p:777-790

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    Cited by:
    1. Douc, R. & Doukhan, P. & Moulines, E., 2013. "Ergodicity of observation-driven time series models and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2620-2647.
    2. Fokianos, Konstantions & Fried, Roland, 2009. "Interventions in ingarch processes," Technical Reports 2009,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    3. Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C., 2013. "Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy," MPRA Paper 48376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Some recent theory for autoregressive count time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 413-438, September.
    5. Ralph D. Snyder & Gael M. Martin & Phillip Gould & Paul D. Feigin, 2007. "An Assessment of Alternative State Space Models for Count Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Feigin, Paul D. & Gould, Phillip & Martin, Gael M. & Snyder, Ralph D., 2008. "Feasible parameter regions for alternative discrete state space models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2963-2970, December.
    7. Robert Jung & A. Tremayne, 2011. "Useful models for time series of counts or simply wrong ones?," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 95(1), pages 59-91, March.
    8. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Information Theoretic Optimality of Observation Driven Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-046/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Rahbek, Anders & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2009. "Poisson Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(488), pages 1430-1439.
    10. Tianqing Liu & Xiaohui Yuan, 2013. "Random rounded integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 645-683, August.
    11. Fukang Zhu & Dehui Wang, 2011. "Estimation and testing for a Poisson autoregressive model," Metrika, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 211-230, March.
    12. Anne Leucht & Michael Neumann, 2013. "Degenerate $$U$$ - and $$V$$ -statistics under ergodicity: asymptotics, bootstrap and applications in statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 349-386, April.
    13. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2008. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-108/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2009. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-038, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Konstantinos Fokianos & Dag Tjøstheim, 2012. "Nonlinear Poisson autoregression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 1205-1225, December.
    16. Ralph D. Snyder & Adrian Beaumont, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for Forecasting Demand for Slow Moving Car Parts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Jung, Robert & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2005. "Time Series of Count Data : Modelling and Estimation," Economics Working Papers 2005,08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    18. Doukhan, Paul & Fokianos, Konstantinos & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2012. "On weak dependence conditions for Poisson autoregressions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(5), pages 942-948.
    19. Jung, Robert C. & Kukuk, Martin & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2006. "Time series of count data: modeling, estimation and diagnostics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2350-2364, December.

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